The international oil price has resumed its decline, and the window for price adjustment of refined oil is difficult to open in the short term.
2011 is about to pass, and the reform of the pricing mechanism of refined oil, which has been concerned by the industry, has not been introduced.
on December 12, the international oil price resumed its decline after stopping falling and rising on Friday. Wang Qiujun, a senior analyst at Junrui Chuangzhi, said that according to the closing price on the 9th, the average price of the three places was 110.61, up 2. 5% from the previous benchmark price It is a mechanical afterburner 6968 used to carry out static load, tension, contraction, bending, shearing, tearing, peeling and other mechanical property experiments of instruments and equipment for various materials. The change rate compared with the previous benchmark period on October 7 is another 2.499%, which is far from the benchmark price of 4%. In a short period of time, it is difficult to open the window of price adjustment of refined oil
affected by the strength of the US dollar and market investors' skepticism about the closer fiscal union convention reached by Europe to curb the European debt crisis, international oil prices fell under pressure on the 12th
recently, international oil prices have fluctuated repeatedly. Analysts from Junrui Chuangzhi said that when the moving average price of crude oil exceeds 4%, the price of domestic refined oil can be adjusted accordingly. At present, the change rate of the three places has not reached the window data of 4%, and the document points out that it is higher than 80 US dollars of crude oil. The person in charge of some large supermarket chains said that when yuan was used, the processing profit margin was deducted at the beginning until the price of refined oil was calculated according to the processing zero profit; It can be predicted that when the future price adjustment window meets the data of 4%, the increase may still need to be weakened, and the price adjustment expectation needs to be postponed. According to the current data, it is unlikely that prices will rise again before the year
ShenTao, an analyst at Zhongyu information, also believes that the horizontal consolidation of international crude oil has forced the crude oil change rate in the three places to always fail to meet the price adjustment window. With the continuous passage of the price adjustment time, the resistance to the retail price increase of refined oil products will become greater and greater. If the retail price of refined oil cannot be effectively raised in December, even if the retail price of refined oil can be raised in January 2012, the national development and Reform Commission will consider the pressure of Spring Festival transportation and appropriately postpone the adjustment time
it is worth noting that 2011 is coming, and the reform of refined oil pricing mechanism, which has always been concerned by vanadium batteries in the industry, has not been introduced. Previously, it was reported that the refined oil price reform led by the national development and Reform Commission has basically formed a "roughly mature" plan. The reform will make "fine adjustments" within the framework of the existing mechanism, mainly focusing on shortening the pricing cycle and improving the operation mode of refined oil price adjustment
however, Wang Qiujun believes that the current pricing mechanism is relatively perfect. If the pricing cycle is shortened and the price is adjusted more frequently, it is not good news for the market. The price adjustment condition of 4% in 22 working days has stabilized the price of refined oil in the market to a certain extent, which is beneficial and harmless to ordinary operators. Just as when the measures for the administration of oil prices (for Trial Implementation) was issued on May 8, 2009, crude oil was below $60, and the 4% data only increased by less than $3, which was too easy to meet. The national development and Reform Commission can only reduce the artificial operation of the market through other constraints to avoid the occurrence of "oil shortage". The current pricing mechanism may have some deficiencies, but it has been relatively perfect, so there is no need to blindly wait for the national development and Reform Commission to adjust the refined oil pricing mechanism
in addition, there are many complaints in the industry about the opaque calculation formula of the average price increase in the three places. Wang Qiujun said that as an important resource for domestic people's livelihood, the calculation formula of refined oil can only be closed and opaque. If everyone knows how to calculate, tunyou will become a popular resource, and the circulation of resources will be less, and oil shortages will often occur
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