The hottest international oil price has broken thr

2022-08-09
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The international oil price "broke through 100", raising the tide of chemical product prices

affected by the recent turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, the international oil price continued to rise, and the U.S. crude oil contract in April broke through the $100/barrel mark, hitting a new high in nearly 28 months. In addition, the supply of phosphate rock in North Africa is decreasing, and chemical products have shown a general upward trend in the past two weeks. Under this, the chemical industry sector strengthened across the board yesterday, and Danhua technology grabbed the daily limit at the end of the day. Hunan Haili and yinglide rose by more than 7%, and Binhua shares rose 3.86% yesterday after the daily limit on Wednesday. Analysts believe that with the resumption of downstream textile, real estate and electronic construction, chemical products will enter the peak season, and the sector will continue to be active repeatedly under the stimulation of oil prices and other factors

"spring ploughing + Event factors" drive

the recent turbulence in North Africa and the Middle East has led to the continuous rise of international oil prices. International standards or industry standards measure the physical properties of various materials. By the deadline, the U.S. crude oil contract in April was $102.13/barrel, up more than 3% from Tuesday. Due to the increase in costs caused by the rise in crude oil prices, the price of basic chemical products has risen again in the past two weeks. According to the monitoring of GF Securities, the biweekly prices of 62 of the 100 products tracked by GF Securities increased month on month, among which calcium carbide PVC (up 36.6% month on month), sodium tripolyphosphate (up 14.4% month on month) and spandex (up 12.1% month on month) increased significantly

among them, phosphorus chemical industry rose sharply last week, and sodium tripolyphosphate rose by 12.73%. This is also closely related to the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. It is reported that due to the outbreak of demonstrations in Morocco, the world's largest exporter of phosphate rock, the FOB price of phosphate rock in Morocco has been increased by $2/ton - $5/ton to $135/ton - $145/ton in mid February. At the same time, Vietnam also plans to raise the export tariff of yellow phosphorus and phosphate rock to 15%

as a strong cyclical variety, the chemical industry, especially agricultural fertilizer, is known as the traditional "spring ploughing" market from March to May every year. At present, the global demand for phosphate fertilizer continues to be strong. Huatai United believes that the tight supply and demand situation in the global phosphate chemical industry will continue until 2013; Due to the good weather this year, manufacturers in southern China have also raised urea prices. Previously, Salt Lake Potash and others have raised the price of potash

in terms of industrial chemical products, the polyurethane industry chain has also entered a cyclical peak season, benefiting from the rebound in the operating rate of downstream industries such as electronics, building materials and textiles. Among them, the unit maintenance factor has driven the price of propylene oxide to continue to rise, and the price in East China has increased from 13100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 15100 yuan/ton; Methyl ethyl ketone, which is in the traditional peak season in March, showed a bottoming out recovery, with prices rising by 35% in the past two months

the price rise effect has been transmitted to a shares

in fact, under the continuous boom in the price of chemical products, the recent performance of chemical products in a shares is significantly stronger than that in the market. Yesterday, the sector recorded an average increase of 1.09%, stronger than the index. Among them, Danhua technology strongly closed the limit in the late trading, with Hunan Haili, yinglite and Yinxing energy leading the increase. From the performance of individual stocks, some varieties that have significantly benefited from the rise in oil prices and chemical product prices have more momentum to go long

for example, Danhua technology, which plans to use coal to replace crude oil due to the ethylene glycol project of China Construction and Investment Corporation, rose by the limit in large quantities yesterday afternoon, closing at 18.29 yuan, and closed negative on only one day in the past 17 trading days; Shanxi sanwei, a BDO listed company also sensitive to the rise in oil prices, once surged 6.49% yesterday, closing up 0.86% to close at 14.14 yuan, a new high in the past two and a half years

in the phosphorus chemical industry, the sub leaders Yuntianhua and Xingfa group rose by 6.58% and 5.85% respectively. Chengxing shares, which also has the scale of phosphorus ore reserves, closed at a full day high of 8.47 yuan, up 4.31%

in polyurethane varieties, the domestic propylene oxide leader Binhua shares closed the daily limit on Wednesday, and the institution "high" caught up with nearly 30million yuan. Yesterday, it rose 3.86% to close at 25.54 yuan, which has reached a new high since its listing. Five institutions on the dragon and tiger list bought 242million yuan; Tianli Gaoxin, which benefited from the rise in the price of methyl ethyl ketone (and also benefited from the rise in the price of adipic acid), and Qi xiangtengda, which rose 4.77% yesterday, closed negative for only 3 times in the past 17 trading days, close to a record high (restoration of rights, the same below)

in addition, the PVC leader of calcium carbide method, INET, rose 7.18% yesterday to close at 18.2 yuan; Pesticide stocks Hunan Haili and Lanfeng Biochemical Co., Ltd. led the increase in tensile stress, tensile modulus of elasticity, elongation at break, Poisson's ratio, stress-strain curve, etc

it is worth noting that some stocks with "stories" also decided to withdraw from the active market yesterday. For example, after the fixed increase was completed and the ChuanHua shares with high transfer expectations rose by the limit last Thursday, they rose 4.44% and closed up 1.59% yesterday, and the moving average maintained a long divergence; Yuanxing energy, the coal "invisible stock" that completed the change of actual controller in the second half of last year, increased by 6.93% to close at 9.41 yuan yesterday. This is also the first Zhongyang since its reduction in mid November last year

in addition to the traditional cyclical recovery of the industry and the support of event factors, the "12th Five Year Plan" of the industry will also be introduced in succession. China Post Securities believes that in the future, we can pay attention to the new enterprises with positive expectations of industry planning, fully understand and affirm the specific utilization, experimental conditions and material characteristics, materials, fluorochemicals, pesticides and other related varieties and listed companies involved in resource integration, such as Yantai Wanhua, Yantai spandex, Juhua shares, etc

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