The most popular production restriction scheme in

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The Ministry of ecological environment recently issued the action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas (hereinafter referred to as the "plan") for consultation by relatively cheap units ε- Caprolactone( ε- CL) directly by ring opening polymerization

according to the plan, partial peak shifting production will be implemented in the iron and steel, coking and casting industries, and comprehensive peak shifting production will be implemented in the building materials industry. The steel production capacity in key cities is limited by 50% in the heating season; The proportion of production restriction in other cities shall not be less than 30%, and the provincial government shall formulate an implementation plan as a whole; The "scattered and dirty" enterprise clusters shall be comprehensively renovated. If an enterprise fails to meet the requirements of governance standards, the power company will not supply power, and those who supply power in violation of regulations will be publicly held accountable

people in the industry believe that the government continues to maintain a high pressure on environmental protection, and the impact of the industry is different. Compared with last year, the implementation of this year's plan is more stringent, and the time for limiting production may be extended at this stage, the coking plant may maintain a low operating rate as usual. The impact of peak load shifting in winter on the production of steel mills may be greater than that of last year. The prosperity of the coke industry is expected to increase with the tightening of environmental protection requirements, and the catalytic effect of policy expectations on the price of the aluminum industry chain deserves attention

this year's environmental protection and production restriction policy is more stringent

compared with last year's policy, this year's environmental protection and production restriction policy is significantly different and stricter

according to this year's air quality improvement objectives, from October 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019, the average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas decreased by about 5% year-on-year, and the days of severe and above pollution decreased by about 5% year-on-year. Last year, the production restriction target was that the PM2.5 of Beijing Tianjin Hebei air pollution transmission channel city decreased by more than 15% year-on-year, and the days of heavy pollution decreased by more than 15% year-on-year

according to the plan, the implementation scope of production restriction in annual heating season is still "2+26" cities, which is basically the same as last year. Before the end of September, 2018, all cities should complete the formulation of peak shift production plan, and the benchmark capacity of enterprise peak shift production is calculated based on the capacity in September, 2018. In terms of the proportion of limited production, last year, it was specified that the production of key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan and Anyang was limited by 50% in the heating season. This time, Tianjin and Xingtai were added to key cities. However, different from last year, this time, other cities are required to limit production by no less than 30%

in terms of optimizing the production capacity structure, the plan requires to increase the elimination and reduction of production capacity in steel, coking, building materials and other industries, and the steel enterprises listed in the de production capacity shall withdraw from the supporting sintering, coke oven, blast furnace and other equipment. In 2018, the iron and steel production capacity of Hebei Province was reduced by more than 10million tons, that of Shanxi Province by 2.25 million tons, that of Shandong Province by 3.55 million tons, and that of Henan Province by more than 1.5 million tons. The elimination of 48 coal-fired units totaling 2.94 million KW has been completed in the region

the plan proposed for the first time this year that technological innovation, high-end products, industrial integration, regional clustering and layout internationalization of iron and steel enterprises are the general trend of the development of biomedical materials industry. If organized emissions, unorganized emissions and bulk material and product transportation fully meet the ultra-low emission requirements, peak load shifting may not be allowed. During the orange and above heavy pollution weather warning period, the production shall be limited by 50%, and the relevant provincial departments shall report to the Ministry of ecological environment Filing with the Ministry of industry and information technology; If only part of the production processes and links meet the ultra-low emission requirements, they will still be included in the peak shifting production implementation plan, and differential peak shifting will be implemented according to the emission performance level

production restriction and emission reduction have different impacts on relevant industries

this year's plan has some new changes compared with last year in terms of production restriction and emission reduction in the iron and steel industry. In this regard, xuxiangchun, my director of iron and steel information, told Shanghai Securities News that in general, the impact of peak load shifting this winter on the production of steel mills has increased compared with last year. The short-term impact is that the implementation time of peak shifting production in autumn and winter may be extended. Last year, it was from November 15 to March 15 of the next year. This year, it may be from early October to the end of March next year

"the long-term impact is to continue to reduce the iron and steel production capacity, at the same time, it is proposed to reduce the coking production capacity, and Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas implement the policy of using steel to determine coke. In addition, increasing the proportion of railway transportation will also have a significant impact on the transportation mode of iron and steel materials and products." Xuxiangchun said

CAITONG Securities Research Report believes that under the four catalysis of the continued implementation of production restriction in the heating season in, the expected strengthening of the collection and payment of relevant fees for captive power plants, the upward price of aluminum oxide/prebaked anode pushing up the aluminum price, and the continuous decline of inventory in the off-season consumption, the fluctuation and rise of aluminum price is a high probability event, and the specific rhythm and intensity will depend on the implementation of the policy

according to their calculation, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum affected this time is about 9.6 million tons. If strictly implemented, the output of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 960000 tons during the heating season; The total production capacity of affected alumina is nearly 30million tons. If strictly implemented, the output of alumina will be reduced by nearly 3million tons during the heating season (corresponding to the production of 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum). The limit of alumina production is slightly greater than that of electrolytic aluminum

industry insiders said that the plan proposed that "2+26" cities should replace 3.92 million households with bulk coal by the end of October 2018. By the end of December 2018, coal-fired boilers of less than 35 steam tons per hour will be basically eliminated in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan. Clean heating and coal to gas conversion deserve attention

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