The most popular production reduction makes the na

2022-07-28
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In the "Futures Workshop" on May 29, the penman clearly warned investors that after the oil price exceeded the $70 mark, oil producing countries might be induced to increase production in private, thereby curbing the further rise of oil prices. Now, this scene has been staged as scheduled, and the result is that the oil price has fallen sharply from the rebound high in the past two weeks

according to the data provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the compliance rate of OPEC production reduction has reached a high of 83% since March. With the rise of oil prices, the compliance rate of production reduction in May fell to 74%. The somewhat discouraged Saudi Arabia no longer plays the leading role in this organization. In May, it also implemented a substantial increase in production. However, the mutual deception of some smaller oil producing countries has made the 4.2 million barrels production reduction order in name only. Among them, the compliance rate of Angola is 11%, that of Ecuador is 31%, and that of Iran is only 32%

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oil producing countries increase production privately because the oil price has entered its profit dessert area, and the market has little confidence that the price will remain at the current level for a long time. When the international crude oil price broke through the $70 mark, the US commercial crude oil inventory reached a record high of 100million barrels in terms of functions. In the whole April, the National Treasury Deposits of OECD members increased by 10million barrels, reaching 2.7 billion barrels. The rising inventory and difficult to improve consumption have made the oil reserves of OECD reach 62 days of consumption, more than 8 days higher than that of the previous year

in fact, the inventory of OECD countries does not include a large amount of crude oil stored on oil tankers in the sea in recent months. According to the statistics of IEA, by the end of May, this amount had reached more than 80 million barrels

the second factor affecting recent oil prices is people's concern about economic fundamentals. Over the past few months, the expectation of economic recovery has led some speculative funds to push up oil prices in the international futures market. In particular, the quantitative easing policy implemented by the Federal Reserve and other central banks has enabled commercial banks and investment banks to obtain better liquidity. However, this liquidity has not been injected into the real economy as scheduled. On the contrary, they repeat their old tricks, Select commodities and other OTC derivatives markets for speculation

however, the latest U.S. economic data began to make speculators suffer major setbacks. First, the latest U.S. unemployment data. The unemployment data approaching 10% embarrassed the Obama administration. This most serious unemployment since 1982 has made any expectation of recovery a big question mark

iea's interim oil market report also made crude oil futures prices worse. The report for the first time relieved people's concerns about the tight supply of crude oil in the coming years, and believed that there would be no problem in the world oil supply until at least 2014. IEA also describes two possible scenarios for crude oil supply in the next few years. The first scenario is that the world economic growth will return to the pre crisis level from 2012 to 2014, that is, the average annual growth rate will reach 5%. Under this scenario, OPEC's remaining capacity will peak in 2010, about 7million barrels/day, but only 3million barrels/day will remain in 2014. The other is that in the next few years, if the global economy can only recover to a growth rate of 3%, OPEC's remaining capacity will continue to grow, and 7million barrels/day of remaining capacity will remain in 2014

not long ago, the EU and OPEC had very constructive consultations on the international crude oil price. The EU agreed that the crude oil price advocated by OPEC should be maintained at $58/barrel, so as to maintain the uninterrupted investment in oil exploitation. OPEC also agreed that the oil price advocated by the EU should not be higher than $80/barrel, so as not to hinder the economic recovery. Both sides agreed that there was no problem with the crude oil supply, and that the recent high oil price was caused by fund speculation, Therefore, it is necessary to further restrict speculation

indeed, speculative funds have successively reduced their long positions in the bulk commodity market recently. In addition to their understanding of the market itself, the recent measures to strengthen supervision in Europe and the United States have forced speculators to have some scruples, which is also one of the factors for the weakening of the market

note: the source of this reprint is indicated. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information about "partners" growing in the experimental field of No. 5 mine, and does not mean agreeing with their views or confirming the authenticity of their contents

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