Analysis on the development of intelligent robots

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Analysis of the development of intelligent robots in the era of artificial intelligence

analysis of the development of intelligent robots in the era of artificial intelligence

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original title: analysis of the development of intelligent robots in the era of artificial intelligence

at present, the development of information technology is accelerating, social needs are changing rapidly, and breakthroughs in cloud computing, big data, and deep learning algorithms drive image recognition, speech recognition Intelligent technologies such as natural language processing have made great progress, and intelligent products such as intelligent terminals, intelligent medicine and intelligent robots have increasingly penetrated into public life. The world is entering the era of artificial intelligence. The vigorous rise of the intelligent industry represented by robot technology has become an important symbol of scientific and technological innovation in the current era. Vigorously developing the intelligent robot industry is not only the key point to achieve the deep integration of artificial intelligence and the real economy, but also a new growth point for the economy from the high-speed stage to the high-quality stage

as the world's largest consumer market of industrial robots and the world's largest potential service robot market, China has unique basic advantages in the development of intelligent robot industry. However, due to multiple factors such as late start and lagging technology, there is still a large gap between the development status of the intelligent robot industry and the international leading level, and it is still in a backward situation of struggling to catch up. Therefore, calmly judging external opportunities and challenges, objectively understanding their own strengths and weaknesses, and clarifying the key issues of development and corresponding countermeasures are the necessary prerequisites for promoting the expansion and strengthening of China's intelligent robot industry and achieving high-quality development

I. at present, China is in an important opportunity period for the development of intelligent robot industry

(I) artificial intelligence technology drives robots into a new era of intelligence

the development of a new generation of information technology lays a solid foundation for the development of intelligent robots. In particular, the practical breakthroughs of artificial intelligence technologies such as image recognition, speech recognition and natural language understanding have significantly improved the robot's perception, interaction and decision-making capabilities. At present, driven by the new Internet, the accuracy of face recognition is as high as 99.55%, the recognition rate of human eyes is more than 97.35%, and the success rate of speech input recognition is more than 97%. The robot has the technical conditions of "seeing and understanding". At the same time, with the gradual application of deep learning and unsupervised learning, the robot has a more critical ability of "thinking", Robots have really entered a new era of intelligence

(II) the application scope of intelligent robots continues to expand to emerging fields

the application of intelligent technology drives the significant improvement of the function and performance of robot products, thus driving intelligent robot products to be applied to more emerging fields. On the one hand, the new generation of industrial robots represented by man-machine cooperative robots are safer and more flexible. They are not only widely used in the traditional automotive and metal processing industries, but also drive a new upsurge in the application of 3C electronics industry. On the other hand, the functions of intelligent services and special robots for home, education, medical and other fields are constantly enriched, which greatly improves the user experience compared with previous products. Therefore, they have also begun to enter the daily life of the public and have been more widely used

(III) the scale of intelligent robot industry is growing at a sustained high speed.

the upsurge of intelligent robot application also drives the sustained and high-speed growth of industrial scale. According to IFR statistics, the global industrial robot market in 2017 was about $14billion, and the supply of robots is expected to exceed 520000 sets in 2020. According to BCG, a Boston Consulting Company, the market potential of intelligent robots in non industrial fields is also constantly released. It is estimated that the market size of commercial, household and military fields will reach US $17billion, US $9billion and US $16.5 billion respectively in 2025. In particular, it is worth noting that the focus of the global intelligent robot market is shifting from Europe and the United States to the Asia Pacific region. According to the research of ABI research, a British consultancy, the Asia Pacific region will replace Europe as the world's largest market in 2020, and its share will increase from 19% in 2015 to 57%

(IV) the pattern of intelligent robot industry is in the period of remodeling and window period

the reform and innovation of technology and market have given birth to new development opportunities. The traditional pattern of intelligent robot industry has been broken, and the new industrial pattern is gradually taking shape. In the traditional market, innovative technology enterprises such as universal robots and rethink robotics have posed a threat to traditional giants such as FANUC, KUKA and ABB in the new field of collaborative robots, while local robot enterprises such as Xinsong, Everton and Guangzhou CNC have accelerated their rise with the advantages of cost and service, and also began to challenge giant enterprises. In emerging markets, the collision of technology, thinking and capital has promoted the blooming of industrial development. There are not only Boston Dynamics, which focuses on technology and leads the future development, but also Dajiang UAV company with accurate product positioning and successful commercial promotion, as well as daki technology company with cross-border integration and innovative ideas. A number of Unicorn enterprises with distinctive characteristics are growing and growing

II. China's intelligent robots are facing international competition challenges

(I) the international competition around intelligent robots is intensifying

developed countries represented by the United States, Europe and Japan have issued relevant strategic plans for intelligent robots, with the core goal of improving the international competitiveness of the industry, and make layout in advance from the aspects of technology research and development and industrial development. Among them, the United States is trying to use the robot roadmap to establish the advantages of next-generation robot technology and application, the European Union launched the SPARC plan to ensure the strategic leadership of European robots in the world, while Japan pointed out in the new robot strategy that it should become the world's first robot application country, and China also issued the robot industry development plan in 2016, Strive to enhance the international competitiveness of independent brands. It can be predicted that the international competition around intelligent robots will become increasingly fierce in the future, and China will face increasing competitive pressure

(II) China has a large gap in some key markets

on the one hand, the upstream core parts market is basically controlled by Japanese and European enterprises, and domestic enterprises still lack competitiveness in relevant markets. For example, nabotesk and harmonaco, two Japanese enterprises, dominate the global robot reducer Market, while the servo motor market is mainly dominated by Japanese products such as Panasonic, Yaskawa and Mitsubishi, and European products such as Siemens and Bosch Rexroth. On the other hand, in some back-end polyurethane insulation material enterprises and preparation equipment enterprises account for half of the application market, and the market recognition and competitiveness of Chinese enterprises' products are also significantly behind the international leading level. For example, foreign brands led by the four families almost monopolize the industrial robot market, accounting for more than 75% of the market share of China's medium and high-end products. In some consumer markets represented by medical treatment, the market share of China's products is still basically blank

(III) leading robot enterprises continue to accelerate the localization layout

industrial robot giant enterprises entered the Chinese market earlier, and the industrial layout is relatively mature. KUKA, abb, FANUC and Yaskawa, the four families of robots, have successfully realized the localization strategy in the Chinese market. KUKA began to apply for Chinese patents as early as 1985 and began a new factory in Shanghai in 2014. ABB moved its robot business headquarters to Shanghai, China. FANUC and Yaskawa jointly established a robot company with Chinese enterprises to promote business development. In contrast, service robot enterprises have just begun the localization layout of the Chinese market. At present, they mainly achieve penetration through product output and commercial cooperation. For example, the leading enterprise of sweeping robot, iRobot, launches specific high-end products for Chinese users to open up the market, while Japan's Softbank group is cooperating with Alibaba, Haier and other domestic enterprises to speed up the entry of pepper robots into the Chinese market

III. The development of intelligent robots in China has a solid foundation and comparative advantages

(I) the scale and demand potential of the domestic robot market is very huge

first, the scale of China's industrial robot market has been ranking first in the world since 2013. In 2016, the supply of robots in the Chinese market reached 87000, twice that of the second South Korea. It is expected that the Chinese market will account for more than 40% of the global market in 2020. Secondly, the market potential of China's service robots and special robots is rapidly releasing, with growth rates of more than 25% and 15% respectively. Stimulated by the increase of the aging population and disposable income, China is likely to become the world's largest service and special robot consumer market in the future. Finally, the demand potential of many robot application segments in China is very strong. In 2016, the density of industrial robots in China (the average number of robots per 10000 workers) was about 68 sets/10000 people, while the density of South Korea ranked first was 631 sets/10000 people. In addition, the supply capacity of robots in logistics, medical treatment, security and other fields is far behind the current market demand

(II) AI key technology capabilities have reached the international advanced level

internationally, the United States and China are the two countries with the most active performance in the field of AI technology. According to the "overview of the development of global AI patent resources", the number of AI patents in the United States and China is about 35000 and 34000 respectively, while the total number of patents in Japan, South Korea, Germany and other major countries is only about 40000. Domestic technology-based enterprises represented by iFLYTEK, Baidu and Alibaba, as well as universities and research institutions, have made joint innovations to help China keep pace with the international leading level in cutting-edge research fields such as face recognition, speech recognition and group collaboration can't buy back experiments, laying a solid artificial intelligence technology foundation for the development of intelligent robots in China

(III) the foundation and development level of the robot industry have been steadily improved

China's robot industry chain is complete, covering upstream and downstream industries such as precision reducer, servo system, intelligent sensor, body processing and system integration solutions, and a large number of excellent enterprises such as green harmonic, intime, speed sensing technology, Xinsong, Guangzhou CNC, kevos, youbixuan, Mingjiang intelligence have emerged. With the full drive of leading enterprises and the active support of local governments, China has initially formed four industrial clusters in the East, South, West and North, including the Yangtze River Delta region, which started earlier, the Pearl River Delta region with a strong CNC industry, central and Northern China, which actively introduced external resources, and the Bohai Rim region, which has the advantage of scientific research talents. The industrial development shows a good trend. Correspondingly, the market share of domestic industrial robots and service robots has also been very bright in recent years. In 2015, domestic industrial robots accounted for about 31% of the domestic market, and 70% of the global civil UAV market was occupied by China. At the same time, significant progress has also been made in the localization of weak links. For example, green harmonic reducer products have been internationally recognized, and the product level has reached or even exceeded that of similar products of harmonaco; The Tianji orthopedic surgery robot jointly developed by Beijing tianzhihang company and Jishuitan Hospital also fills the gap in the field

(IV) emerging forces are becoming a new driving force to accelerate industrial development

driven by the application demand and transformation demand, leading enterprises in various fields in China have extended from the downstream application end of the industry to the upstream, and began to set foot in the industrial robot business, household appliance enterprises

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